PREÇOS DE COMMODITIES DURANTE PERÍODOS DE PANDEMIA: ENTENDENDO O EFEITO DE VARIÁVEIS REGIONAIS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54399/rbgdr.v19i1.6256Keywords:
Commodities. Regionalidade. Pandemia. Coronavírus. COVID-19.Abstract
As decisões locais para contenção da pandemia podem promover mudanças nos mercados em longas distâncias, ou seja, as consequências no mercado de commodities possuem tendência de heterogeneidade por implicações regionais. É o trade-off entre as restrições do COVID-19 e o nível de atividade econômica regional. Diante de rupturas na cadeia de abastecimento, um polo agrícola exportador como a região de Uberlândia se torna mais vulnerável frente aos impactos provocados pelo COVID-19. Assim, o objetivo do estudo foi analisar o efeito de variáveis regionais no comportamento do preço das commodities agrícolas resultante da pandemia global. Foram utilizadas cotações diárias de soja e milho no período entre 2010 e 2020. Os resultados indicam que o coronavírus tem impactado a variabilidade dos preços das commodities, soja e milho, por meio do número de casos confirmados. Esses resultados apresentam implicações importantes para mercado de commodities, que sofre as consequências de maior demanda com rupturas no abastecimento, levando a maiores retornos por parte dos investidores.
References
ADEKOYA, O. B.; OLIYIDE, J. A. How COVID-19 drives connectedness among commodity and financial markets: Evidence from TVP-VAR and causality-in-quantiles techniques. Resources Policy, p. 101898, out. 2020. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301420720309296>.
ALI, M.; ALAM, N.; RIZVI, S. A. R. Coronavirus (COVID-19) "” An epidemic or pandemic for financial markets. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, v. 27, p. 100341, set. 2020. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2214635020301350>.
AMAR, A. BEN et al. The unprecedented reaction of equity and commodity markets to COVID-19. Finance Research Letters, p. 101853, nov. 2020. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1544612320316676>.
ARAUJO, F. H. A. et al. An analysis of Brazilian agricultural commodities using permutation – information theory quantifiers: The influence of food crisis. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, v. 139, p. 110081, out. 2020. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0960077920304781>.
BAKAS, D.; TRIANTAFYLLOU, A. Commodity price volatility and the economic uncertainty of pandemics. Economics Letters, v. 193, p. 109283, ago. 2020. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0165176520301890>.
BARICHELLO, R. The COVID"19 pandemic: Anticipating its effects on Canada's agricultural trade. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, v. 68, n. 2, p. 219–224, 22 jun. 2020. Disponível em: <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/cjag.12244>.
BELO, N. M.; BRASIL, H. G. Assimetria informacional e eficiência semiforte do mercado. Revista de Administração de Empresas, v. 46, n. Edição Especial, p. 48–57, 2006.
BOHL, M. T.; PÜTZ, A.; SULEWSKI, C. Speculation and the informational efficiency of commodity futures markets. Journal of Commodity Markets, n. November, p. 100159, dez. 2020. Disponível em: <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2020.100159>.
BREWIN, D. G. The impact of COVID"19 on the grains and oilseeds sector. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, v. 68, n. 2, p. 185–188, 17 jun. 2020. Disponível em: <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/cjag.12239>.
BROOKS, C.; PROKOPCZUK, M. The dynamics of commodity prices. Quantitative Finance, v. 13, n. 4, p. 527–542, abr. 2013. Disponível em: <http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14697688.2013.769689>.
CAGGIANO, G.; CASTELNUOVO, E.; KIMA, R. The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty. Economics Letters, v. 194, p. 109392, set. 2020. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0165176520302457>.
CAMPEíO, P.; SANCHES, A. C.; MACIEL, W. R. E. Mercado Internacional de Commodities: uma análise da participação do Brasil no mercado mundial de soja entre 2008 e 2019. Desenvolvimento em Questão, v. 18, n. 51, p. 76–92, 24 abr. 2020. Disponível em: <https://www.revistas.unijui.edu.br/index.php/desenvolvimentoemquestao/article/view/8963>.
CARRARA, A. M.; BARBOSA, F. A influência de operações de hedge no mercado potencial de derivativos no agronegócio regional de Uberlândia. FACEF Pesquisa: Desenvolvimento e Gestão, v. 22, n. 3, p. 261–272, 2019.
CHAVES, M. H. M. et al. Caracterização morfológica e agronômica de acessos de milho crioulo do Banco de Germoplasma da UFPR. Brazilian Journal of Development, v. 6, n. 10, p. 82646–82667, 2020. Disponível em: <https://www.brazilianjournals.com/index.php/BRJD/article/view/18968/15247>.
CHENG, I.-H.; XIONG, W. Financialization of Commodity Markets. Annual Review of Financial Economics, v. 6, n. 1, p. 419–441, dez. 2014. Disponível em: <http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-financial-110613-034432>.
CHEVALLIER, J. Covid-19 Pandemic and Financial Contagion. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, v. 13, n. 12, p. 309, 3 dez. 2020. Disponível em: <https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/13/12/309>.
COLUCCIA, B. et al. Effects of COVID-19 on the Italian agri-food supply and value chains. Food Control, v. 123, p. 107839, maio 2021. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0956713520307556>.
COSTOLA, M.; IACOPINI, M.; SANTAGIUSTINA, C. R. M. A. Google search volumes and the financial markets during the COVID-19 outbreak. Finance Research Letters, p. 101884, dez. 2020. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1544612320316986>.
CUNHA, J. P. A. R. DA; ZANDBERGEN, H. P. Perdas Na Colheita Mecanizada Da Soja Na Região Do Triângulo Mineiro E Alto Paranaíba. Biosci. J., v. 23, n. 4, p. 61–66, 2005.
ERTEN, B.; OCAMPO, J. A. The future of commodity prices and the pandemic-driven global recession: Evidence from 150 years of data. World Development, v. 137, n. 1, p. 105164, 25 jan. 2021. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0305750X20302916>.
EVANGELOS, V. Efficient markets hypothesis in the time of COVID-19. Review of Economic Analysis, v. 12, n. 2, p. 1–28, 2020.
FARIAS, D. DE P.; ARAÚJO, F. F. DE. Will COVID-19 affect food supply in distribution centers of Brazilian regions affected by the pandemic? Trends in Food Science & Technology, v. 103, n. April, p. 361–366, set. 2020. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0924224420304842>.
FORONI, C.; MARCELLINO, M.; STEVANOVIC, D. Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: Lessons from the financial crisis. International Journal of Forecasting, p. 1–37, dez. 2020. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169207020301916>.
FORTI, C. A. B.; PEIXOTO, F. M.; SANTIAGO, W. DE P. Hipótese da Eficiência de Mercado: Um Estudo Exploratório no Mercado de Capitais Brasileiro. Gestão e Regionalidade, v. 25, n. 75, p. 45–56, 2009.
GOODELL, J. W. COVID-19 and finance: Agendas for future research. Finance Research Letters, v. 35, p. 101512, jul. 2020. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1544612320303974>.
HAMADI, H.; BASSIL, C.; NEHME, T. News surprises and volatility spillover among agricultural commodities: The case of corn, wheat, soybean and soybean oil. Research in International Business and Finance, v. 41, p. 148–157, out. 2017. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0275531916302306>.
HARJOTO, M. A. et al. How do equity markets react to COVID-19? Evidence from emerging and developed countries. Journal of Economics and Business, p. 105966, dez. 2020. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0148619520304100>.
HEO, W.; RABBANI, A.; GRABLE, J. E. An Evaluation of the Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Risk Tolerance of Financial Decision Makers. Finance Research Letters, v. 13, n. 12, p. 101842, 3 nov. 2020. Disponível em: <https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/13/12/309>.
HOBBS, J. E. Food supply chains during the COVID"19 pandemic. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, v. 68, n. 2, p. 171–176, 3 jun. 2020. Disponível em: <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/cjag.12237>.
HOLTZ, V. et al. Perdas na colheita mecanizada de soja utilizando diferentes mecanismos na plataforma de corte. Pubvet, v. 13, n. 2, p. 1–6, fev. 2019. Disponível em: <http://www.pubvet.com.br/artigo/5686/perdas-na-colheita-mecanizada-de-soja-utilizando-diferentes-mecanismos-na-plataforma-de-corte>.
KAMDEM, J. S.; ESSOMBA, R. B.; BERINYUY, J. N. Deep learning models for forecasting and analyzing the implications of COVID-19 spread on some commodities markets volatilities. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, v. 140, p. 110215, nov. 2020. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0960077920306111>.
KARSTANJE, D.; VAN DER WEL, M.; VAN DIJK, D. J. C. Common Factors in Commodity Futures Curves. SSRN Electronic Journal. [S.l: s.n.], 2015. Disponível em: <http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2558014>.
KERR, W. A. The COVID"19 pandemic and agriculture: Short" and long"run implications for international trade relations. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, v. 68, n. 2, p. 225–229, 17 jun. 2020. Disponível em: <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/cjag.12230>.
KUMAR, A. et al. COVID-19 impact on sustainable production and operations management. Sustainable Operations and Computers, v. 1, p. 1–7, 2020. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2666412720300015>.
LIN, B.; ZHANG, Y. Y. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural exports. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, v. 19, n. 12, p. 2937–2945, dez. 2020. Disponível em: <http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(20)63430-X>.
MALLORY, M. L. Impact of COVID"19 on Medium"Term Export Prospects for Soybeans, Corn, Beef, Pork, and Poultry. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, p. aepp.13113, 21 out. 2020. Disponível em: <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/aepp.13113>.
MATTOS, F.; FRANCO DA SILVEIRA, R. The Expansion of the Brazilian Winter Corn Crop and Its Impact on Price Transmission. International Journal of Financial Studies, v. 6, n. 2, p. 45, 23 abr. 2018. Disponível em: <http://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/6/2/45>.
MEDEIROS, P. O.; NÄÄS, I. DE A. Cadeia produtiva da soja no Piauí: uma análise de perdas de grãos em função de distâncias percorridas. Revista Brasileira de Engenharia de Biossistemas, v. 10, n. 4, p. 368, 27 dez. 2016. Disponível em: <http://seer.tupa.unesp.br/index.php/BIOENG/article/view/449>.
MIARI, R. C.; MESQUITA, J. M. C. DE; PARDINI, D. J. Eficiência de Mercado e Corrupção Organizacional: Estudo dos Impactos Sobre o Valor dos Acionistas. Brazilian Business Review, p. 1–26, 2015.
OLIVEIRA, D. L. C. M. DE. Desenvolvimento e especialização da agroindústria em Uberlândia - MG (1970 a 2014): a expansão das indústrias processadoras de soja, carnes e couros e seu papel na articulação das escalas local-global. 2016. 1–225 f. Universidade Estadual Paulista, 2016.
RODRIGUES, E. C.; TAVARES, R.; MEIRELES, A. L. Inequalities in the spatial concentration of agricultural crops among the micro- and mesoregions of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Ciência Rural, v. 50, n. 5, p. 1–12, 2020. Disponível em: <http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-84782020000500201&tlng=en>.
SALISU, A. A.; AKANNI, L.; RAHEEM, I. The COVID-19 global fear index and the predictability of commodity price returns. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, v. 27, p. 100383, set. 2020. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2214635020302136>.
SALISU, A. A.; VO, X. V. Predicting stock returns in the presence of COVID-19 pandemic: The role of health news. International Review of Financial Analysis, v. 71, p. 101546, out. 2020. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301420720309296>.
SILVA, R. et al. The Sino-Brazilian Telecoupled Soybean System and Cascading Effects for the Exporting Country. Land, v. 6, n. 3, p. 53, 21 ago. 2017. Disponível em: <http://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/6/3/53>.
SMITH, V. H.; GLAUBER, J. W. Trade, policy, and food security. Agricultural Economics, v. 51, n. 1, p. 159–171, 2 jan. 2020. Disponível em: <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/agec.12547>.
SOENDERGAARD, Niels et al. Impactos da Covid-19 no agronegócio e o papel do Brasil. Cadernos EBAPE.BR, 2020. , p. 470–491.
STOCKL, M.; MOREIRA, R. R.; GIUBERTI, A. C. O impacto das commodities sobre a dinâmica da inflação no Brasil e o papel amortecedor do câmbio: evidências para o CRB Índex e Índice de Commodities Brasil. Nova Economia, v. 27, n. 1, p. 173–207, abr. 2017. Disponível em: <http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-63512017000100173&lng=pt&tlng=pt>.
TISDELL, C. A. Economic, social and political issues raised by the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic Analysis and Policy, v. 68, p. 17–28, dez. 2020. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0313592620304082>.
Å¢IÅ¢AN, A. G. The Efficient Market Hypothesis: Review of Specialized Literature and Empirical Research. Procedia Economics and Finance, v. 32, n. 15, p. 442–449, 2015.
TONIN, J. M. et al. Conditional correlation and volatility between spot and futures markets for soybean and corn. Agribusiness, v. 36, n. 4, p. 707–724, 29 out. 2020. Disponível em: <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/agr.21664>.
TOPCU, M.; GULAL, O. S. The impact of COVID-19 on emerging stock markets. Finance Research Letters, v. 36, p. 101691, out. 2020. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1544612320306966>.
TRÖSTER, B.; KÜBLBÖCK, K. Unprecedented but not Unpredictable: Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis on Commodity-Dependent Countries. The European Journal of Development Research, p. 1–60, 21 out. 2020. Disponível em: <http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41287-020-00313-9>.
WESZ JUNIOR, V. J. O Mercado da Soja no Sudeste de Mato Grosso (Brasil): uma Análise das Relações entre Produtores Rurais e Empresas a partir da Sociologia Econômica. Dados, v. 62, n. 1, p. 1–36, 2019. Disponível em: <http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0011-52582019000100302&tlng=pt>.
WORKIE, E. et al. Deciphering the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on food security, agriculture, and livelihoods: A review of the evidence from developing countries. Current Research in Environmental Sustainability, v. 2, p. 100014, dez. 2020. Disponível em: <https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S266604902030027X>.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Revista Brasileira de Gestão e Desenvolvimento Regional
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Authors who have their papers accepted and published in the Brazilian Journal of Regional Management and Development must agree to the copyright policy CC BY https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
If the article is accepted for publication, the copyright is automatically assigned to the Brazilian Journal of Regional Management and Development.