REGIONAL HETEROGENEITY IN POPULATION DYNAMICS BY AGE GROUPS IN BRAZIL

Abstract

Currently, Brazil has experienced a phenomenon of inversion of its age pyramid, which will influence the composition of the age groups and, possibly, the socio-economic profile of its population, both at the national and regional levels. The main objective of this work is to analyze the changes in the regional population dynamics in terms of their age structure, seeking to identify differentiated spatial effects concerning the process of demographic transition. The empirical investigation was based on the Shift-Share and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis methods, which were applied in the population data of the microregions according to age groups for the period from 2000 to 2010. The results showed that there is spatial heterogeneity in the dynamics of the process of demographic transition between Brazilian regions. The microregions located in the North region of Brazil showed faster population growth, mainly in the children's and working-age groups. For the elderly population group, the Center-West stood out with higher population dynamics. However, the loss of population dynamics have been more accentuated in Rio Grande do Sul, both for the children's and working-age groups. The reduction of the active age population is the most worrisome element of the demographic transition since it indicates a loss of vigor in the process of economic development. Mapping the spatial distribution of the demographic transition process provides relevant information and represents one important contribution of this study to subsidy the formulation of development policies. On the one hand, this study identifies regions where working-age population is quickly reducing and thus would need more economic stimulus. On the other hand, it also identifies regions with accelerated population aging where the demand for health and social assistance services tends to increase.